Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
$8.5M traded on Polymarket, $276 in the past day. Prices are delayed.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $8.5M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $276 of it in the past day, with $83K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on December 31, 2027 is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Every outcome
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.