Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

$8.5M traded on Polymarket, $308 in the past day. Prices are delayed.

December 31, 2027

33.5^%

24h 0.07d 0.0

June 30, 2027

21.0^%

24h 0.07d ▼8.5

How it has moved

Daily close

December 31, 2027June 30, 2027March 31, 2027

Every outcome

33.5%December 31, 20270.0 7d

21.0%June 30, 2027▼8.5 7d

13.5%March 31, 2027▼6.5 7d

2.6%December 31▼0.7 7d

In the news

No headline in the past two days has matched this market.

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Full rules and market on Polymarket

Countries

Israel, Lebanon

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