Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

$166K traded on Polymarket, $3K in the past day.

October 20

98.6^%

24h ▲12.17d ▲15.1

October 19

98.4^%

24h ▲13.97d ▲16.9

How it has moved

Daily close

October 20October 19October 18

Every outcome

98.6%October 20▲15.1 7d

98.4%October 19▲16.9 7d

97.4%October 18▲15.9 7d

92.0%October 28▲10.5 7d

89.5%October 21▲6.5 7d

86.0%October 25▼1.5 7d

86.0%October 30▲3.5 7d

82.5%October 22▲0.5 7d

82.5%October 27▲5.0 7d

81.5%October 26▼4.0 7d

77.0%October 23▼4.5 7d

75.5%October 31▼3.0 7d

72.5%October 29▼8.0 7d

18.5%October 6▼3.5 7d

These add up to 1138%. Some markets allow more than one outcome to happen, and prices always carry a small overround.

In the news

No headline in the past two days has matched this market.

How it settles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, inclu…

Full rules and market on Polymarket

Countries

Israel, Lebanon

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