Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?
$21K traded on Polymarket, $11K in the past day. Thin market: under $25K traded, so one order can move it. Prices are delayed.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $21K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $11K of it in the past day, with $50K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read. At under $25K traded it counts as a thin market.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by October 27, 2026, 8 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following groups of parties wins a combined total of 61 seats or more in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election: (a) The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu; or (b)…
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.