Will Ukraine target Moscow on?
$472K traded on Polymarket, $7K in the past day. Prices are delayed.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $472K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $7K of it in the past day, with $26K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on October 22 is 5 points, a moderate spread, so treat the last decimal loosely.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by October 31, 2026, 12 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow.
Every outcome
These add up to 178%. Some markets allow more than one outcome to happen, and prices always carry a small overround.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.