When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
$145K traded on Polymarket, $1K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $145K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $1K of it in the past day, with $4K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on October 1 - 31, 2026 is 3 points, a moderate spread, so treat the last decimal loosely.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by November 1, 2026, 13 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
Every outcome
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.