How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
$1.5M traded on Polymarket, $132 in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $1.5M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $132 of it in the past day, with $2K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on 14–16 is 19 points, a wide spread, so the price can jump on small orders.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by January 7, 2027, 80 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Every outcome
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.