When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
$154K traded on Polymarket, $1K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $154K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $1K of it in the past day, with $16K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Does not return by November 1, 2026 is 0.1 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by November 1, 2026, 13 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS.
Every outcome
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.