What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

$111K traded on Polymarket, $5K in the past day.

Over 2.5

72.5^%

24h ▲3.57d ▼5.5

2.25–2.5

27.5^%

24h ▼4.07d ▲10.5

How it has moved

Daily close

Over 2.52.25–2.52.0–2.25

Every outcome

72.5%Over 2.5▼5.5 7d

27.5%2.25–2.5▲10.5 7d

0.5%2.0–2.25▼1.7 7d

0.5%1.5–2.0▼0.1 7d

In the news

No headline in the past two days has matched this market.

How it settles

This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "Over 2.5" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and gover…

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