Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
$3.8M traded on Polymarket, $868 in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $3.8M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $868 of it in the past day, with $221K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on 1 is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by March 1, 2027, 133 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
Every outcome
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.