How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

$193K traded on Polymarket, $5K in the past day.

Greater than 8

47.0^%

24h ▼14.57d ▲9.5

41.5^%

24h ▲8.07d ▼12.0

How it has moved

Daily close

78Greater than 8

Every outcome

47.0%Greater than 8▲9.5 7d

41.5%8▼12.0 7d

12.3%7▲2.1 7d

0.4%Fewer than 5▲0.4 7d

In the news

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How it settles

This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall. One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all other…

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Countries

China

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