Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

About this market

Who prices it. $2.5M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $30K of it in the past day, with $269K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on December 31 is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read.

Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.

What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week. The latest headline we matched to it is “Is Russia stalking satellites which help Ukraine from space?” (Al Jazeera, October 20, 2026).

What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.

How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".