NATO x Russia military clash by...?

$9.6M traded on Polymarket, $191K in the past day.

December 31

28.5^%

24h ▲3.07d ▲2.0

October 31

14.5^%

24h ▲6.07d ▲6.5

How it has moved

Daily close

December 31October 31

Every outcome

28.5%December 31▲2.0 7d

14.5%October 31▲6.5 7d

In the news

No headline in the past two days has matched this market.

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not muniti…

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Countries

Russia

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