European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31, 2026?
$273K traded on Polymarket, $4K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $273K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $4K of it in the past day, with $16K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 2 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend…
In the news
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