The numbers behind it
US unemployment rateSeptember 2026 · was 4.1%
4.2%Sahm rule recession indicatorSeptember 2026 · was -0.07
0.00US real GDP growth, annualizedQ2 2026 · was 2.5%
2.2%Official figures, not odds. Source: BLS via FRED, FRED, BEA via FRED.
How it settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate…
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