$1.9M traded on Polymarket, $4K in the past day. Prices are delayed.
↑ 4.25%
80.2%
24h ▲1.07d ▲4.8
↑ 4.5%
11.6%
24h ▼1.47d ▼2.0
How it has moved
Daily close
↑ 4.25%↑ 4.5%↑ 4.75%
About this market
Who prices it. $1.9M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $4K of it in the past day, with $396K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Above 4.25% is 2.2 points, a moderate spread, so treat the last decimal loosely.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
Every outcome
80.2%↑ 4.25%▲4.8 7d
11.6%↑ 4.5%▼2.0 7d
5.9%↑ 4.75%▲1.7 7d
2.6%↑ 5.0%▼0.5 7d
2.6%↓ 2.75%▲0.1 7d
2.5%↓ 1.0%▼0.1 7d
2.4%↓ 0.5%0.0 7d
2.3%↓ 0%0.0 7d
2.1%↑ 5.5%▲0.1 7d
2.1%↓ 0.75%0.0 7d
2.1%↓ 1.5%0.0 7d
2.1%↑ 5.25%▼0.1 7d
1.8%↓ 3.25%▼2.4 7d
1.7%↓ 0.25%0.0 7d
1.7%↓ 2.25%▼0.4 7d
1.7%↓ 2.5%▼0.1 7d
1.5%↓ 1.25%▲0.2 7d
1.4%↓ 3.0%▼0.6 7d
1.3%↓ 2.0%▼0.5 7d
1.2%↓ 1.75%0.0 7d
These add up to 130%. Some markets allow more than one outcome to happen, and prices always carry a small overround.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
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