$54.6M traded on Polymarket, $38K in the past day.
0 (0 bps)
97.0%
24h ▼0.17d ▲0.5
1 (25 bps)
0.8%
24h ▼0.57d ▼1.0
How it has moved
Daily close
0 (0 bps)1 (25 bps)2 (50 bps)
About this market
Who prices it. $54.6M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $38K of it in the past day, with $3.7M in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on 0 (0 bps) is 0.1 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026.
Every outcome
97.0%0 (0 bps)▲0.5 7d
0.8%1 (25 bps)▼1.0 7d
0.4%2 (50 bps)▼0.3 7d
0.3%4 (100 bps)0.0 7d
0.2%3 (75 bps)0.0 7d
0.1%5 (125 bps)0.0 7d
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.
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