Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
$53K traded on Polymarket, $546 in the past day. Prices are delayed.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $53K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $546 of it in the past day, with $16K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 3.2 points, a moderate spread, so treat the last decimal loosely.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.