Israel military action against Beirut by October 31, 2026?
$421K traded on Polymarket, $361 in the past day. Prices are delayed.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $421K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $361 of it in the past day, with $11K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by October 31, 2026, 12 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT).
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.