How high will inflation get in 2026?

$1.5M traded on Polymarket, $3K in the past day.

Above 4.5%

14.5^%

24h ▲0.57d ▲1.5

Above 5%

10.0^%

24h ▼1.07d ▲1.5

How it has moved

Daily close

Above 4.5%Above 5%Above 6%

Every outcome

14.5%Above 4.5%▲1.5 7d

10.0%Above 5%▲1.5 7d

3.4%Above 6%▼0.5 7d

3.1%Above 8%0.0 7d

2.5%Above 10%0.0 7d

In the news

No headline in the past two days has matched this market.

The numbers behind it

US inflation, year on year (CPI)September 2026 · was 3.4%

3.7%

Fed funds target rangeOct 20 · was 3.75% at the top

3.75–4.00%

Official figures, not odds. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve via FRED.

How it settles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already be…

Full rules and market on Polymarket

Related markets

Fed Decision in October 86.5%

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026 64.5%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 12.5%

Fed Decision in December 77.5%

Fed Decision in January 57.5%

Bank of Russia decision in October 86.0%