UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
$25K traded on Polymarket, $0 in the past day. Thin market: under $25K traded, so one order can move it. Prices are delayed.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $25K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $0 of it in the past day, with $16K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on Yes is 0.1 points, so the quoted price is a fair read. At under $25K traded it counts as a thin market.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom formally announces the transfer of sovereignty over any area of the Falkland Islands to Argentina by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.