PricedNews / World / Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027
World · settles by Jun 30, 2027
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
$9.0M traded on Polymarket, $165K in the past day.
December 31, 2027
69.0%
24h ▲0.57d ▲0.5
November 30, 2027
64.0%
24h ▲0.57d ▼1.5
How it has moved
Daily closeDecember 31, 2027November 30, 2027October 31, 2027
About this market
Who prices it. $9.0M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $165K of it in the past day, with $1.2M in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on December 31, 2027 is 2 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week. The latest headline we matched to it is “Is Russia stalking satellites which help Ukraine from space?” (Al Jazeera, October 20, 2026).
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by June 30, 2027, 254 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Every outcome
69.0%December 31, 2027▲0.5 7d
64.0%November 30, 2027▼1.5 7d
62.0%October 31, 2027▼1.0 7d
57.5%September 30, 2027▼3.5 7d
55.0%August 31, 2027▼3.0 7d
53.0%July 31, 2027▲0.5 7d
51.0%June 30, 2027▲0.5 7d
48.5%May 31, 2027▲1.5 7d
38.5%April 30, 2027▼1.0 7d
30.5%March 31, 2027▼1.0 7d
26.0%February 28, 2027▼1.0 7d
19.5%January 31, 2027▼3.0 7d
14.0%December 31▼1.5 7d
6.5%November 30▼2.0 7d
3.3%October 31▼0.6 7d
These add up to 598%. Some markets allow more than one outcome to happen, and prices always carry a small overround.