Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31, 2026?

About this market

Who prices it. $113K has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $750 of it in the past day, with $37K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on December 31 is 1 point, so the quoted price is a fair read.

Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.

What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week. The latest headline we matched to it is “Ethiopia PM warns Eritrea of 'severe consequences' if supports enemies” (Africanews, October 20, 2026).

What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.

How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eritrean military forces enter Ethiopia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Ethiopian territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".