Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31, 2026?
$17.3M traded on Polymarket, $61K in the past day.
How it has moved
Daily closeAbout this market
Who prices it. $17.3M has changed hands on Polymarket since it opened, $61K of it in the past day, with $349K in resting orders. The gap between the best buy and sell price on December 31 is 2 points, so the quoted price is a fair read.
Other venues. Polymarket is the only venue we track that lists this exact question, so there's no second price to check it against.
What has moved it. No outcome has moved past our alert threshold in the past week.
What would change it. The fixed date is the deadline: it settles by December 31, 2026, 73 days away. Before then the price should mainly move on news that touches the rules below.
How it settles, in short. This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Every outcome
In the news
No headline in the past two days has matched this market.